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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.