🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still